This study explores the use of prediction markets within online consumer communities to predict the success of new products, focusing specifically on new ski sales. Compared to traditional market research tools, prediction markets offer a cost-effective and efficient alternative by aggregating dispersed knowledge from participants. The study involved 62 users and found that prediction markets based on consumer communities produced accurate results, with mean average errors ranging from 2.74% to 9.09% across four markets.
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Matzler, Kurt, et al. "Predicting new product success with prediction markets in online communities." R&D Management 43.5 (2013): 420-432.
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